the big one; or, a choice between pancakes and living

I remember a few years ago some report came out predicting a 99% chance that a major earthquake would hit the state of California in the next thirty years. This dire prediction made numerous headlines, but if I remember correctly the (oversimplified) main reason behind the large number was that it's been so long since the last "Big One" that statistical models can't really keep up anymore.

Incidentally, I also recall hearing about an older couple that went without a car collision for over twenty years. One day their automotive insurance provider contacted them with the news that they were being dropped. The reason? They'd gone so long without an accident that they were "due" for a big one.

In other words, statistical models are wonderful, but they need context to make sense.

I do think the earthquake report was important, though, because it's totally reasonable to assume a big quake will happen before 2040. Ultimately, though, the sad fact is most people don't really care. We may know The Big One is coming, but we don't believe it.

If we really thought The Big One could happen this afternoon, we'd all have stockpiles of emergency food and water and all of our cabinets and shelves would be secured properly. If we really thought our computers could crash, we'd back up our files consistently. If we really thought that eating junk food could lead to significant health problems, we'd start eating healthier. If we really believed that we might die in some car crash or freak accident before the day is over, we'd keep our wills up to date and let our loved ones know how we feel.

As if it is, must of us don't do these things, at least not with any regularity. This isn't because we don't know these things could happen, but that we don't believe they will. No one really believes he or she is immortal, but at the same time, the average person does not really believe he or she will die one day.

One of my favorite pieces of movie dialogue comes from the film Stranger Than Fiction. In one scene, Harold (our protagonist who hears a narrator no one else can hear) is discussing mortality with another character. It goes like this:

Jules Hilbert: You were right. This narrator might very well kill you, so I humbly suggest that you just forget all this and go live your life.

Harold Crick: Go live my life? I am living my life! I'd like to continue to live my life!

Jules Hilbert: I know, of course. I mean all of it, however long you have left. You know, I mean, Howard, you could use it to have an adventure, you know, invent something, or just finish reading Crime and Punishment. Hell, Harold, you could just eat nothing but pancakes if you wanted.

Harold Crick: What's wrong with you? Hey! I don't wanna eat nothing but pancakes, I wanna live! Who in their right mind in a choice between pancakes and living chooses pancakes?

Jules Hilbert: Harold, if you'd pause to think, I believe you'd realize that that answer's inextricably contingent upon the type of life being led and, of course,the quality of the pancakes. [pause] You don't understand what I'm saying.

Harold Crick: [sighs] Yes, I do. But you have to understand that this isn't a philosophy or a literary theory or a story to me. It's my life.

Jules Hilbert: Absolutely! So just go make it the one you've always wanted.

I think two lessons are important for me to remember:

A) More than likely The Big One isn't going to happen today, so I shouldn't live in fear.

B) More than likely The Big One will come one day, so I need to "go make [my life] the one [I've] always wanted."